China Steel Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 1723 Stock | TWD 112.50 0.50 0.45% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Steel Chemical on the next trading day is expected to be 112.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.81. China Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast China Steel stock prices and determine the direction of China Steel Chemical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of China Steel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Steel to cross-verify your projections. China |
Most investors in China Steel cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the China Steel's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets China Steel's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for China Steel works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. China Steel Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Steel Chemical on the next trading day is expected to be 112.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20, mean absolute percentage error of 2.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Steel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
China Steel Stock Forecast Pattern
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China Steel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting China Steel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Steel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 111.01 and 113.74, respectively. We have considered China Steel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Steel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Steel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2361 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1968 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0103 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 71.8081 |
Predictive Modules for China Steel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Steel Chemical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Steel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for China Steel
For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Steel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Steel's price trends.China Steel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Steel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Steel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Steel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
China Steel Chemical Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Steel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Steel's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
China Steel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Steel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Steel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Steel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Steel Chemical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
China Steel Risk Indicators
The analysis of China Steel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Steel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9345 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Variance | 1.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Steel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for China Stock analysis
When running China Steel's price analysis, check to measure China Steel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Steel is operating at the current time. Most of China Steel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Steel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Steel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Steel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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