Barrick Gold Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ABX Stock | CAD 24.33 0.49 2.06% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Barrick Gold Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.86. Barrick Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Barrick Gold stock prices and determine the direction of Barrick Gold Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Barrick Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Barrick Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Barrick Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Barrick Gold fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barrick Gold to cross-verify your projections. Barrick |
Most investors in Barrick Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Barrick Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Barrick Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Barrick Gold price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Barrick Gold Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Barrick Gold Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Barrick Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Barrick Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Barrick Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
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Barrick Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Barrick Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Barrick Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.59 and 26.09, respectively. We have considered Barrick Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Barrick Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Barrick Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8428 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6863 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0303 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.8639 |
Predictive Modules for Barrick Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Barrick Gold Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Barrick Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Barrick Gold
For every potential investor in Barrick, whether a beginner or expert, Barrick Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Barrick Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Barrick. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Barrick Gold's price trends.Barrick Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Barrick Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Barrick Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Barrick Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Barrick Gold Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Barrick Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Barrick Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Barrick Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Barrick Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Barrick Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Barrick Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Barrick Gold Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Barrick Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Barrick Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Barrick Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting barrick stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barrick Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Complementary Tools for Barrick Stock analysis
When running Barrick Gold's price analysis, check to measure Barrick Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Barrick Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Barrick Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Barrick Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Barrick Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Barrick Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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