AMERISAFE Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMSF Stock | USD 43.54 0.29 0.66% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AMERISAFE on the next trading day is expected to be 43.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.99. AMERISAFE Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AMERISAFE stock prices and determine the direction of AMERISAFE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AMERISAFE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although AMERISAFE's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AMERISAFE's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AMERISAFE fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMERISAFE to cross-verify your projections. AMERISAFE |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 AMERISAFE Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AMERISAFE's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AMERISAFE's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AMERISAFE stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AMERISAFE's open interest, investors have to compare it to AMERISAFE's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AMERISAFE is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AMERISAFE. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in AMERISAFE cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AMERISAFE's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AMERISAFE's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for AMERISAFE is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of AMERISAFE value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. AMERISAFE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AMERISAFE on the next trading day is expected to be 43.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 1.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMERISAFE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMERISAFE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AMERISAFE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMERISAFE | AMERISAFE Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AMERISAFE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AMERISAFE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AMERISAFE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.56 and 44.77, respectively. We have considered AMERISAFE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMERISAFE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMERISAFE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0881 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7095 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0147 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.987 |
Predictive Modules for AMERISAFE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMERISAFE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMERISAFE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for AMERISAFE
For every potential investor in AMERISAFE, whether a beginner or expert, AMERISAFE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AMERISAFE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AMERISAFE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AMERISAFE's price trends.AMERISAFE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AMERISAFE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AMERISAFE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AMERISAFE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMERISAFE Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AMERISAFE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AMERISAFE's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AMERISAFE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AMERISAFE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AMERISAFE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AMERISAFE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AMERISAFE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3905.08 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.26) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 43.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 43.66 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.32) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.29) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 29.75 |
AMERISAFE Risk Indicators
The analysis of AMERISAFE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AMERISAFE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amerisafe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in AMERISAFE Stock
When determining whether AMERISAFE is a strong investment it is important to analyze AMERISAFE's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AMERISAFE's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AMERISAFE Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMERISAFE to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in AMERISAFE Stock please use our How to Invest in AMERISAFE guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMERISAFE. If investors know AMERISAFE will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AMERISAFE listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | Dividend Share 1.39 | Earnings Share 3.21 | Revenue Per Share 16.136 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.026 |
The market value of AMERISAFE is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMERISAFE that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AMERISAFE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AMERISAFE's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AMERISAFE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AMERISAFE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AMERISAFE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AMERISAFE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AMERISAFE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.