Global Mediacom Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| BMTR Stock | IDR 220.00 8.00 3.51% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Mediacom Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 219.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 228.70. Global Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Global |
Most investors in Global Mediacom cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Global Mediacom's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Global Mediacom's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Global Mediacom - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Global Mediacom prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Global Mediacom price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Global Mediacom Tbk. Global Mediacom Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Mediacom Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 219.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.88, mean absolute percentage error of 32.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 228.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Mediacom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Global Mediacom Stock Forecast Pattern
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Global Mediacom Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Global Mediacom's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Global Mediacom's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 217.08 and 221.22, respectively. We have considered Global Mediacom's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Mediacom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Mediacom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5615 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.8763 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 228.7024 |
Predictive Modules for Global Mediacom
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Global Mediacom Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Global Mediacom's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Global Mediacom
For every potential investor in Global, whether a beginner or expert, Global Mediacom's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Global Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Global. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Global Mediacom's price trends.Global Mediacom Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Global Mediacom stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Global Mediacom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Global Mediacom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Global Mediacom Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Global Mediacom's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Global Mediacom's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Global Mediacom Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Global Mediacom stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Global Mediacom shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Global Mediacom stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Global Mediacom Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3.3 M | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 224.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 222.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (8.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (8.00) |
Global Mediacom Risk Indicators
The analysis of Global Mediacom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Global Mediacom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting global stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.04 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Global Stock
Global Mediacom financial ratios help investors to determine whether Global Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Global with respect to the benefits of owning Global Mediacom security.