Grupe SAB Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CIDMEGA Stock | MXN 34.80 0.04 0.11% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupe SAB de on the next trading day is expected to be 34.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.18. Grupe Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Grupe SAB stock prices and determine the direction of Grupe SAB de's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Grupe SAB's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupe SAB to cross-verify your projections. Grupe |
Most investors in Grupe SAB cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Grupe SAB's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Grupe SAB's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Grupe SAB works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Grupe SAB Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grupe SAB de on the next trading day is expected to be 34.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupe SAB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grupe SAB Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Grupe SAB | Grupe SAB Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Grupe SAB Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grupe SAB's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupe SAB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.39 and 35.21, respectively. We have considered Grupe SAB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupe SAB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupe SAB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.02 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.02 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 6.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.18 |
Predictive Modules for Grupe SAB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupe SAB de. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupe SAB's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Grupe SAB
For every potential investor in Grupe, whether a beginner or expert, Grupe SAB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupe SAB's price trends.Grupe SAB Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Grupe SAB stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Grupe SAB could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Grupe SAB by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grupe SAB de Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Grupe SAB's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Grupe SAB's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Grupe SAB Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupe SAB stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupe SAB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupe SAB stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupe SAB de entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 34.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.04) |
Grupe SAB Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grupe SAB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupe SAB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0965 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.39 | |||
| Variance | 0.1521 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Grupe SAB
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Grupe SAB position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Grupe SAB will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Grupe Stock
| 0.71 | TSMN | Taiwan Semiconductor | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Grupe SAB could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Grupe SAB when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Grupe SAB - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Grupe SAB de to buy it.
The correlation of Grupe SAB is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Grupe SAB moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Grupe SAB de moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Grupe SAB can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupe SAB to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Grupe SAB de information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Grupe SAB's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for Grupe Stock analysis
When running Grupe SAB's price analysis, check to measure Grupe SAB's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grupe SAB is operating at the current time. Most of Grupe SAB's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grupe SAB's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grupe SAB's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grupe SAB to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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