CMS Energy Preferred Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CMS-PC Preferred Stock | USD 18.60 0.25 1.36% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CMS Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 17.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.64. CMS Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CMS Energy stock prices and determine the direction of CMS Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CMS Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CMS Energy to cross-verify your projections. CMS |
Most investors in CMS Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, preferred stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CMS Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CMS Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for CMS Energy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CMS Energy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. CMS Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CMS Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 17.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CMS Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CMS Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CMS Energy Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
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CMS Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CMS Energy's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CMS Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.21 and 19.34, respectively. We have considered CMS Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CMS Energy preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CMS Energy preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0834 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2892 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.64 |
Predictive Modules for CMS Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CMS Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CMS Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for CMS Energy
For every potential investor in CMS, whether a beginner or expert, CMS Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CMS Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CMS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CMS Energy's price trends.CMS Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CMS Energy preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CMS Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CMS Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CMS Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CMS Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CMS Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CMS Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CMS Energy preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CMS Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CMS Energy preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CMS Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CMS Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of CMS Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CMS Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cms preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CMS Energy to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade CMS Preferred Stock refer to our How to Trade CMS Preferred Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for CMS Preferred Stock analysis
When running CMS Energy's price analysis, check to measure CMS Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CMS Energy is operating at the current time. Most of CMS Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CMS Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CMS Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CMS Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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