Compass Diversified Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CODI Stock | USD 22.28 0.12 0.54% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compass Diversified Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 22.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.63. Compass Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Compass Diversified's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Compass |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Compass Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Compass Diversified's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Compass Diversified's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Compass Diversified stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Compass Diversified's open interest, investors have to compare it to Compass Diversified's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Compass Diversified is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Compass. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Compass Diversified cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Compass Diversified's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Compass Diversified's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Compass Diversified is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Compass Diversified Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Compass Diversified Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compass Diversified Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 22.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compass Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compass Diversified's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Compass Diversified Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Compass Diversified | Compass Diversified Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Compass Diversified Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Compass Diversified's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Compass Diversified's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.51 and 23.56, respectively. We have considered Compass Diversified's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compass Diversified stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compass Diversified stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6131 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.236 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0104 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.6311 |
Predictive Modules for Compass Diversified
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Compass Diversified. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Compass Diversified's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Compass Diversified
For every potential investor in Compass, whether a beginner or expert, Compass Diversified's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Compass Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Compass. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Compass Diversified's price trends.Compass Diversified Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Compass Diversified stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Compass Diversified could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Compass Diversified by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Compass Diversified Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Compass Diversified's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Compass Diversified's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Compass Diversified Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Compass Diversified stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Compass Diversified shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Compass Diversified stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Compass Diversified Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1274.4 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5217 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.22 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.16 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.12 |
Compass Diversified Risk Indicators
The analysis of Compass Diversified's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Compass Diversified's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting compass stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Variance | 2.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Compass Stock
When determining whether Compass Diversified offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Compass Diversified's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Compass Diversified Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Compass Diversified Holdings Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Diversified to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Multi-Sector Holdings space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Compass Diversified. If investors know Compass will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Compass Diversified listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share (2.41) | Revenue Per Share 28.804 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 |
The market value of Compass Diversified is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Compass that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Compass Diversified's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Compass Diversified's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Compass Diversified's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Compass Diversified's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Compass Diversified's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Compass Diversified is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Compass Diversified's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.