DermTech Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DMTK Stock | USD 0.34 0.01 2.86% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DermTech on the next trading day is expected to be 0.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.26. DermTech Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although DermTech's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of DermTech's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of DermTech fundamentals over time.
DermTech |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 DermTech Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast DermTech's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in DermTech's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for DermTech stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current DermTech's open interest, investors have to compare it to DermTech's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of DermTech is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in DermTech. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in DermTech cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the DermTech's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets DermTech's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
DermTech simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for DermTech are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as DermTech prices get older. DermTech Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DermTech on the next trading day is expected to be 0.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DermTech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DermTech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
DermTech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DermTech | DermTech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
DermTech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting DermTech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DermTech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.49, respectively. We have considered DermTech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DermTech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DermTech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.3715 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0057 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.021 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0419 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.26 |
Predictive Modules for DermTech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DermTech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DermTech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for DermTech
For every potential investor in DermTech, whether a beginner or expert, DermTech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DermTech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DermTech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DermTech's price trends.DermTech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DermTech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DermTech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DermTech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DermTech Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DermTech's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DermTech's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
DermTech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DermTech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DermTech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DermTech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DermTech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
DermTech Risk Indicators
The analysis of DermTech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DermTech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dermtech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.15 | |||
| Variance | 37.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in DermTech Stock
When determining whether DermTech is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if DermTech Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Dermtech Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Dermtech Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DermTech to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy DermTech Stock please use our How to buy in DermTech Stock guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of DermTech. If investors know DermTech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about DermTech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.65) | Revenue Per Share 0.465 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.106 | Return On Assets (0.39) | Return On Equity (1.22) |
The market value of DermTech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of DermTech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of DermTech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is DermTech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because DermTech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect DermTech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between DermTech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if DermTech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DermTech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.