Franco Nevada Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

FNV Stock  CAD 165.18  3.35  2.07%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Franco Nevada on the next trading day is expected to be 163.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 132.40. Franco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Franco Nevada's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Franco Nevada's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Franco Nevada fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 11th of June 2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 855.04, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 42.39. . As of the 11th of June 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 846 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 169.8 M.
Most investors in Franco Nevada cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Franco Nevada's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Franco Nevada's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Franco Nevada is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Franco Nevada value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Franco Nevada Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of June 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Franco Nevada on the next trading day is expected to be 163.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.14, mean absolute percentage error of 6.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 132.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Franco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Franco Nevada's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Franco Nevada Stock Forecast Pattern

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Franco Nevada Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Franco Nevada's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Franco Nevada's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 161.95 and 165.32, respectively. We have considered Franco Nevada's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
165.18
161.95
Downside
163.64
Expected Value
165.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Franco Nevada stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Franco Nevada stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.7919
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.1355
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0129
SAESum of the absolute errors132.4038
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Franco Nevada. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Franco Nevada. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Franco Nevada

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Franco Nevada. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Franco Nevada's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
163.38165.07166.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
131.96133.65181.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
162.24169.73177.23
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.961.071.20
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Franco Nevada

For every potential investor in Franco, whether a beginner or expert, Franco Nevada's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Franco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Franco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Franco Nevada's price trends.

Franco Nevada Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Franco Nevada stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Franco Nevada could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Franco Nevada by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Franco Nevada Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Franco Nevada's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Franco Nevada's current price.

Franco Nevada Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Franco Nevada stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Franco Nevada shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Franco Nevada stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Franco Nevada entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Franco Nevada Risk Indicators

The analysis of Franco Nevada's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Franco Nevada's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting franco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Franco Stock

When determining whether Franco Nevada is a strong investment it is important to analyze Franco Nevada's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Franco Nevada's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Franco Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franco Nevada to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Franco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Franco Nevada guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Franco Nevada's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Franco Nevada is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Franco Nevada's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.