First Merchants Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| FRMEP Stock | USD 25.53 0.27 1.07% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Merchants on the next trading day is expected to be 25.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.52. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Merchants stock prices and determine the direction of First Merchants's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Merchants' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although First Merchants' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Merchants' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Merchants fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Merchants to cross-verify your projections. First |
Most investors in First Merchants cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Merchants' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Merchants' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through First Merchants price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. First Merchants Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 18th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of First Merchants on the next trading day is expected to be 25.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Merchants Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Merchants | First Merchants Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Merchants Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Merchants' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Merchants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.67 and 26.04, respectively. We have considered First Merchants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Merchants stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Merchants stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.702 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1397 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0056 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.5193 |
Predictive Modules for First Merchants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Merchants. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for First Merchants
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Merchants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Merchants' price trends.First Merchants Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Merchants stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Merchants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Merchants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Merchants Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Merchants' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Merchants' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Merchants Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Merchants stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Merchants shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Merchants stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Merchants entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.27 |
First Merchants Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Merchants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Merchants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3812 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4231 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6739 | |||
| Variance | 0.4541 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6095 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.179 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Merchants to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in First Stock, please use our How to Invest in First Merchants guide.Note that the First Merchants information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Merchants' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities |
Is First Merchants' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Merchants. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | Dividend Share 1.36 | Earnings Share 3.81 | Revenue Per Share 10.631 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
The market value of First Merchants is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.