Greene County Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| GCBC Stock | USD 32.00 0.79 2.53% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Greene County Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.51. Greene Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Greene County stock prices and determine the direction of Greene County Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Greene County's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Greene County's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Greene County's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Greene County fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greene County to cross-verify your projections. Greene |
Most investors in Greene County cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Greene County's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Greene County's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Greene County polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Greene County Bancorp as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Greene County Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Greene County Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 32.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 0.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Greene Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Greene County's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Greene County Stock Forecast Pattern
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Greene County Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Greene County's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Greene County's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.40 and 35.28, respectively. We have considered Greene County's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Greene County stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Greene County stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8517 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7133 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.025 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.5102 |
Predictive Modules for Greene County
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Greene County Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Greene County's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Greene County
For every potential investor in Greene, whether a beginner or expert, Greene County's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Greene Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Greene. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Greene County's price trends.Greene County Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Greene County stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Greene County could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Greene County by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Greene County Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Greene County's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Greene County's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Greene County Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Greene County stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Greene County shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Greene County stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Greene County Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Greene County Risk Indicators
The analysis of Greene County's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Greene County's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting greene stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Variance | 9.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Greene County Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Greene County's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Greene County Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Greene County Bancorp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greene County to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Greene County Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Greene County's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for Greene Stock analysis
When running Greene County's price analysis, check to measure Greene County's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Greene County is operating at the current time. Most of Greene County's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Greene County's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Greene County's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Greene County to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Greene County's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Greene County. If investors know Greene will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Greene County listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 0.32 | Earnings Share 1.44 | Revenue Per Share 3.794 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
The market value of Greene County Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Greene that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Greene County's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Greene County's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Greene County's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Greene County's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Greene County's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Greene County is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Greene County's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.