Harmony Gold Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| HMY Stock | ARS 11,944 536.50 4.70% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Harmony Gold Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 11,730 with a mean absolute deviation of 359.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22,293. Harmony Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Harmony Gold stock prices and determine the direction of Harmony Gold Mining's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Harmony Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harmony Gold to cross-verify your projections. Harmony |
Most investors in Harmony Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Harmony Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Harmony Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Harmony Gold price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Harmony Gold Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Harmony Gold Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 11,730 with a mean absolute deviation of 359.56, mean absolute percentage error of 190,872, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22,293.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harmony Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harmony Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Harmony Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Harmony Gold | Harmony Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Harmony Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Harmony Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Harmony Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11,727 and 11,734, respectively. We have considered Harmony Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harmony Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harmony Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 132.1077 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 359.561 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0375 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22292.7817 |
Predictive Modules for Harmony Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harmony Gold Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harmony Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Harmony Gold
For every potential investor in Harmony, whether a beginner or expert, Harmony Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Harmony Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Harmony. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Harmony Gold's price trends.Harmony Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harmony Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harmony Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harmony Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Harmony Gold Mining Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Harmony Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Harmony Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Harmony Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Harmony Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Harmony Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Harmony Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Harmony Gold Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 395.8 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8745 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11667.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11759.33 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0794 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 544.5 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 536.5 |
Harmony Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Harmony Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harmony Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting harmony stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Variance | 11.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| CRM | Salesforce | |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Class C |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Harmony Stock
When determining whether Harmony Gold Mining offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Harmony Gold's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Harmony Gold Mining Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Harmony Gold Mining Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harmony Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.