Indah Kiat Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| INKP Stock | IDR 9,075 225.00 2.42% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Indah Kiat Pulp on the next trading day is expected to be 9,184 with a mean absolute deviation of 215.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11,656. Indah Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Indah |
Most investors in Indah Kiat cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Indah Kiat's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Indah Kiat's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Indah Kiat is based on an artificially constructed time series of Indah Kiat daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Indah Kiat 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Indah Kiat Pulp on the next trading day is expected to be 9,184 with a mean absolute deviation of 215.86, mean absolute percentage error of 89,125, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11,656.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Indah Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Indah Kiat's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Indah Kiat Stock Forecast Pattern
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Indah Kiat Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Indah Kiat's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Indah Kiat's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9,182 and 9,187, respectively. We have considered Indah Kiat's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Indah Kiat stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Indah Kiat stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6432 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -55.0926 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 215.8565 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11656.25 |
Predictive Modules for Indah Kiat
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Indah Kiat Pulp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Indah Kiat's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Indah Kiat
For every potential investor in Indah, whether a beginner or expert, Indah Kiat's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Indah Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Indah. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Indah Kiat's price trends.Indah Kiat Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Indah Kiat stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Indah Kiat could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Indah Kiat by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Indah Kiat Pulp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Indah Kiat's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Indah Kiat's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Indah Kiat Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Indah Kiat stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Indah Kiat shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Indah Kiat stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Indah Kiat Pulp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 118829.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.75) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9175.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9141.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (212.50) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (225.00) |
Indah Kiat Risk Indicators
The analysis of Indah Kiat's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Indah Kiat's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting indah stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
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Other Information on Investing in Indah Stock
Indah Kiat financial ratios help investors to determine whether Indah Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Indah with respect to the benefits of owning Indah Kiat security.