Nektar Therapeutics Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| ITH Stock | EUR 1.10 0.05 4.35% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Nektar Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.19. Nektar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nektar Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Nektar |
Most investors in Nektar Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nektar Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nektar Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Nektar Therapeutics is based on a synthetically constructed Nektar Therapeuticsdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Nektar Therapeutics 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Nektar Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nektar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nektar Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nektar Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Nektar Therapeutics | Nektar Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Nektar Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nektar Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nektar Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.95, respectively. We have considered Nektar Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nektar Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nektar Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 80.2249 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0516 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.195 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1437 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.188 |
Predictive Modules for Nektar Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nektar Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nektar Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Nektar Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Nektar, whether a beginner or expert, Nektar Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nektar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nektar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nektar Therapeutics' price trends.Nektar Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nektar Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nektar Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nektar Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nektar Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nektar Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nektar Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nektar Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nektar Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nektar Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nektar Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nektar Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.05) |
Nektar Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nektar Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nektar Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nektar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.45 | |||
| Variance | 55.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 25.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 17.57 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
| CART | Maplebear Common Stock | |
| OPK | Opko Health | |
| AVAI | Avant Technologies | |
| VEOEY | Veolia Environnement SA | |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Class C |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Nektar Stock
When determining whether Nektar Therapeutics is a strong investment it is important to analyze Nektar Therapeutics' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Nektar Therapeutics' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Nektar Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nektar Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Nektar Stock please use our How to Invest in Nektar Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.