Itochu Corp Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ITOCY Stock | USD 91.19 1.58 1.70% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Itochu Corp ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 89.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.89. Itochu Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Itochu Corp stock prices and determine the direction of Itochu Corp ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Itochu Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Itochu Corp to cross-verify your projections. Itochu |
Most investors in Itochu Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Itochu Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Itochu Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Itochu Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Itochu Corp ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Itochu Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Itochu Corp ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 89.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39, mean absolute percentage error of 3.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Itochu Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Itochu Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Itochu Corp Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Itochu Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Itochu Corp's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Itochu Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 87.72 and 91.06, respectively. We have considered Itochu Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Itochu Corp pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Itochu Corp pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0734 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3854 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 85.8937 |
Predictive Modules for Itochu Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Itochu Corp ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Itochu Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Itochu Corp
For every potential investor in Itochu, whether a beginner or expert, Itochu Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Itochu Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Itochu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Itochu Corp's price trends.Itochu Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Itochu Corp pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Itochu Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Itochu Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Itochu Corp ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Itochu Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Itochu Corp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Itochu Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Itochu Corp pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Itochu Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Itochu Corp pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Itochu Corp ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Itochu Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Itochu Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Itochu Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting itochu pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| GM | General Motors | |
| CRM | Salesforce |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Itochu Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Itochu Corp ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Itochu Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Complementary Tools for Itochu Pink Sheet analysis
When running Itochu Corp's price analysis, check to measure Itochu Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Itochu Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Itochu Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Itochu Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Itochu Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Itochu Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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