Kaiser Aluminum Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| KALU Stock | USD 94.92 6.43 7.27% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kaiser Aluminum on the next trading day is expected to be 92.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.26. Kaiser Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kaiser Aluminum stock prices and determine the direction of Kaiser Aluminum's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Kaiser Aluminum's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Kaiser Aluminum's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Kaiser Aluminum's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kaiser Aluminum fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kaiser Aluminum to cross-verify your projections. Kaiser |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Kaiser Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kaiser Aluminum's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kaiser Aluminum's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kaiser Aluminum stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kaiser Aluminum's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kaiser Aluminum's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kaiser Aluminum is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kaiser. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Kaiser Aluminum cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kaiser Aluminum's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kaiser Aluminum's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Kaiser Aluminum is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Kaiser Aluminum value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Kaiser Aluminum Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kaiser Aluminum on the next trading day is expected to be 92.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64, mean absolute percentage error of 3.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kaiser Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kaiser Aluminum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kaiser Aluminum Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kaiser Aluminum | Kaiser Aluminum Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kaiser Aluminum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kaiser Aluminum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kaiser Aluminum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 90.27 and 94.88, respectively. We have considered Kaiser Aluminum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kaiser Aluminum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kaiser Aluminum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4763 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6436 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 100.2581 |
Predictive Modules for Kaiser Aluminum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kaiser Aluminum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kaiser Aluminum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Kaiser Aluminum
For every potential investor in Kaiser, whether a beginner or expert, Kaiser Aluminum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kaiser Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kaiser. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kaiser Aluminum's price trends.Kaiser Aluminum Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kaiser Aluminum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kaiser Aluminum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kaiser Aluminum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kaiser Aluminum Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kaiser Aluminum's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kaiser Aluminum's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kaiser Aluminum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kaiser Aluminum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kaiser Aluminum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kaiser Aluminum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kaiser Aluminum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Kaiser Aluminum Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kaiser Aluminum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kaiser Aluminum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kaiser stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Variance | 5.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kaiser Aluminum to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Kaiser Stock please use our How to Invest in Kaiser Aluminum guide.You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Complementary Tools for Kaiser Stock analysis
When running Kaiser Aluminum's price analysis, check to measure Kaiser Aluminum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kaiser Aluminum is operating at the current time. Most of Kaiser Aluminum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kaiser Aluminum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kaiser Aluminum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kaiser Aluminum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Kaiser Aluminum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kaiser Aluminum. If investors know Kaiser will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kaiser Aluminum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.525 | Dividend Share 3.08 | Earnings Share 3.44 | Revenue Per Share 188.406 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of Kaiser Aluminum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kaiser that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kaiser Aluminum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kaiser Aluminum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kaiser Aluminum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kaiser Aluminum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kaiser Aluminum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kaiser Aluminum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kaiser Aluminum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.