Kingsway Financial Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

KFS Stock  USD 8.02  0.02  0.25%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Kingsway Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 7.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.18. Kingsway Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kingsway Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Kingsway Financial Services's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Kingsway Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Kingsway Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Kingsway Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kingsway Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kingsway Financial to cross-verify your projections.
  
Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 8.81 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 0.14 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 16.8 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 12.3 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Kingsway Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kingsway Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kingsway Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kingsway Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kingsway Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kingsway Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kingsway Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kingsway. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Kingsway Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kingsway Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kingsway Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Kingsway Financial polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Kingsway Financial Services as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Kingsway Financial Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Kingsway Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 7.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.18.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kingsway Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kingsway Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Kingsway Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

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Kingsway Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Kingsway Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kingsway Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.58 and 9.36, respectively. We have considered Kingsway Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.02
7.47
Expected Value
9.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kingsway Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kingsway Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4167
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1997
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0237
SAESum of the absolute errors12.1804
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Kingsway Financial historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Kingsway Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kingsway Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kingsway Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.178.069.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.103.998.82
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kingsway Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kingsway Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kingsway Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kingsway Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for Kingsway Financial

For every potential investor in Kingsway, whether a beginner or expert, Kingsway Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kingsway Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kingsway. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kingsway Financial's price trends.

Kingsway Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kingsway Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kingsway Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kingsway Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Kingsway Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kingsway Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kingsway Financial's current price.

Kingsway Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kingsway Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kingsway Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kingsway Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kingsway Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Kingsway Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Kingsway Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kingsway Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kingsway stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Kingsway Financial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Kingsway Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Kingsway Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Kingsway Stock

  0.42SDA SunCar TechnologyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Kingsway Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Kingsway Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Kingsway Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Kingsway Financial Services to buy it.
The correlation of Kingsway Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Kingsway Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Kingsway Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Kingsway Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Kingsway Stock Analysis

When running Kingsway Financial's price analysis, check to measure Kingsway Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kingsway Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Kingsway Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kingsway Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kingsway Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kingsway Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.