Myers Industries Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MYE Stock | USD 15.35 0.07 0.45% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Myers Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 15.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.62. Myers Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Myers Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Myers Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Myers Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Myers Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Myers Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Myers Industries fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Myers Industries to cross-verify your projections. Myers |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Myers Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Myers Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Myers Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Myers Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Myers Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to Myers Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Myers Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Myers. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Myers Industries cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Myers Industries' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Myers Industries' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Myers Industries - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Myers Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Myers Industries price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Myers Industries. Myers Industries Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Myers Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 15.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Myers Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Myers Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Myers Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Myers Industries | Myers Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Myers Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Myers Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Myers Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.90 and 18.39, respectively. We have considered Myers Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Myers Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Myers Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1099 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3665 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.624 |
Predictive Modules for Myers Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Myers Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Myers Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Myers Industries
For every potential investor in Myers, whether a beginner or expert, Myers Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Myers Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Myers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Myers Industries' price trends.Myers Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Myers Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Myers Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Myers Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Myers Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Myers Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Myers Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Myers Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Myers Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Myers Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Myers Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Myers Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Myers Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Myers Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Myers Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting myers stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.24 | |||
| Variance | 10.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| MSFT | Microsoft | |
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Myers Industries to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Myers Stock refer to our How to Trade Myers Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Myers Stock analysis
When running Myers Industries' price analysis, check to measure Myers Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Myers Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Myers Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Myers Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Myers Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Myers Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Myers Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Myers Industries. If investors know Myers will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Myers Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Dividend Share 0.54 | Earnings Share 1.06 | Revenue Per Share 21.841 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of Myers Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Myers that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Myers Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Myers Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Myers Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Myers Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Myers Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Myers Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Myers Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.