Nestl SA Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Nestl SA - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Nestl SA prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Nestl SA price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Nestl SA.

Nestl SA Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nestl SA on the next trading day is expected to be 1,730 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.02, mean absolute percentage error of 962.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 531.98.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nestl SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nestl SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Nestl SA observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Nestl SA observations.

Predictive Modules for Nestl SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nestl SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 1,728 1,730 1,732 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 1,469 1,470 1,903 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nestl SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nestl SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nestl SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nestl SA.

Other Forecasting Options for Nestl SA

For every potential investor in Nestl, whether a beginner or expert, Nestl SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nestl Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nestl. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nestl SA's price trends.

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Nestl SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nestl SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nestl SA's current price.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Nestl SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nestl SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nestl SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.