Osisko Gold Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

OR Stock  USD 16.05  0.11  0.69%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Osisko Gold Ro on the next trading day is expected to be 16.06 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.23  and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.48. Osisko Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Osisko Gold stock prices and determine the direction of Osisko Gold Ro's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Osisko Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Osisko Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Osisko Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Osisko Gold fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Osisko Gold to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of 04/29/2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 5,398, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 21.82. . As of 04/29/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 141.9 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (101.5 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Osisko Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Osisko Gold's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Osisko Gold's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Osisko Gold stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Osisko Gold's open interest, investors have to compare it to Osisko Gold's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Osisko Gold is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Osisko. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Osisko Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Osisko Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Osisko Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Osisko Gold works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Osisko Gold Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Osisko Gold Ro on the next trading day is expected to be 16.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Osisko Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Osisko Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Osisko Gold Stock Forecast Pattern

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Osisko Gold Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Osisko Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Osisko Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.22 and 17.90, respectively. We have considered Osisko Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.05
16.06
Expected Value
17.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Osisko Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Osisko Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0402
MADMean absolute deviation0.2285
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0149
SAESum of the absolute errors13.4834
When Osisko Gold Ro prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Osisko Gold Ro trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Osisko Gold observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Osisko Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Osisko Gold Ro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Osisko Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.1516.0117.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.4215.2817.14
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.4516.0316.62
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.6314.9816.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Osisko Gold. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Osisko Gold's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Osisko Gold's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Osisko Gold Ro.

Other Forecasting Options for Osisko Gold

For every potential investor in Osisko, whether a beginner or expert, Osisko Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Osisko Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Osisko. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Osisko Gold's price trends.

Osisko Gold Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Osisko Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Osisko Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Osisko Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Osisko Gold Ro Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Osisko Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Osisko Gold's current price.

Osisko Gold Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Osisko Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Osisko Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Osisko Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Osisko Gold Ro entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Osisko Gold Risk Indicators

The analysis of Osisko Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Osisko Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting osisko stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Osisko Gold Ro is a strong investment it is important to analyze Osisko Gold's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Osisko Gold's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Osisko Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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Is Osisko Gold's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Osisko Gold. If investors know Osisko will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Osisko Gold listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.054
Dividend Share
0.235
Earnings Share
(0.19)
Revenue Per Share
1.335
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.052
The market value of Osisko Gold Ro is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Osisko that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Osisko Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Osisko Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Osisko Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Osisko Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Osisko Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Osisko Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Osisko Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.