Palfinger Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PAL Stock | EUR 21.90 0.55 2.58% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Palfinger AG on the next trading day is expected to be 21.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.44. Palfinger Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Palfinger stock prices and determine the direction of Palfinger AG's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Palfinger's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palfinger to cross-verify your projections. Palfinger |
Most investors in Palfinger cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Palfinger's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Palfinger's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Palfinger is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Palfinger AG value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Palfinger Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Palfinger AG on the next trading day is expected to be 21.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Palfinger Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Palfinger's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Palfinger Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Palfinger | Palfinger Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Palfinger Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Palfinger's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Palfinger's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.40 and 23.36, respectively. We have considered Palfinger's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Palfinger stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Palfinger stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7732 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2813 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.4401 |
Predictive Modules for Palfinger
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Palfinger AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Palfinger's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Palfinger
For every potential investor in Palfinger, whether a beginner or expert, Palfinger's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Palfinger Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Palfinger. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Palfinger's price trends.Palfinger Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Palfinger stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Palfinger could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Palfinger by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Palfinger AG Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Palfinger's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Palfinger's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Palfinger Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Palfinger stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Palfinger shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Palfinger stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Palfinger AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 732.86 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.5 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.55 |
Palfinger Risk Indicators
The analysis of Palfinger's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Palfinger's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting palfinger stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Variance | 2.47 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Palfinger AG using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palfinger to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Palfinger Stock analysis
When running Palfinger's price analysis, check to measure Palfinger's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Palfinger is operating at the current time. Most of Palfinger's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Palfinger's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Palfinger's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Palfinger to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Bond Analysis Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios. | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Theme Ratings Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance |