Rio2 Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| RIO Stock | CAD 0.53 0.02 3.64% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rio2 on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.01. Rio2 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Rio2 stock prices and determine the direction of Rio2's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Rio2's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Rio2's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Rio2's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Rio2 fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rio2 to cross-verify your projections. Rio2 |
Most investors in Rio2 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Rio2's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Rio2's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Rio2 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Rio2 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Rio2 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rio2 on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rio2 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rio2's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Rio2 Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rio2 | Rio2 Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Rio2 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Rio2's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rio2's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.46, respectively. We have considered Rio2's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rio2 stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rio2 stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.4387 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0165 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0353 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.0051 |
Predictive Modules for Rio2
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rio2. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rio2's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Rio2
For every potential investor in Rio2, whether a beginner or expert, Rio2's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rio2 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rio2. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rio2's price trends.Rio2 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rio2 stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rio2 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rio2 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rio2 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Rio2's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Rio2's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Rio2 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rio2 stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rio2 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rio2 stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rio2 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Rio2 Risk Indicators
The analysis of Rio2's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rio2's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rio2 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.05 | |||
| Variance | 16.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Rio2
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Rio2 position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Rio2 will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Rio2 Stock
| 0.89 | IE | Ivanhoe Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | FDY | Faraday Copper Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | WMT | Walmart Inc CDR Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Rio2 Stock
| 0.85 | CVS | CVS HEALTH CDR | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Rio2 could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Rio2 when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Rio2 - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Rio2 to buy it.
The correlation of Rio2 is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Rio2 moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Rio2 moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Rio2 can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rio2 to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for Rio2 Stock analysis
When running Rio2's price analysis, check to measure Rio2's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rio2 is operating at the current time. Most of Rio2's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rio2's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rio2's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rio2 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios |