SBA Communications Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SBAC Stock | USD 193.09 0.78 0.40% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SBA Communications Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 192.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.22. SBA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SBA Communications stock prices and determine the direction of SBA Communications Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SBA Communications' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although SBA Communications' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of SBA Communications' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of SBA Communications fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SBA Communications to cross-verify your projections. SBA |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 SBA Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast SBA Communications' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in SBA Communications' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for SBA Communications stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current SBA Communications' open interest, investors have to compare it to SBA Communications' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of SBA Communications is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in SBA. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in SBA Communications cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the SBA Communications' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets SBA Communications' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for SBA Communications - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When SBA Communications prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in SBA Communications price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of SBA Communications Corp. SBA Communications Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SBA Communications Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 192.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.92, mean absolute percentage error of 16.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SBA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SBA Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SBA Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
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SBA Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SBA Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SBA Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 190.45 and 194.23, respectively. We have considered SBA Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SBA Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SBA Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.6862 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.919 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 172.219 |
Predictive Modules for SBA Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SBA Communications Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SBA Communications' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for SBA Communications
For every potential investor in SBA, whether a beginner or expert, SBA Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SBA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SBA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SBA Communications' price trends.SBA Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SBA Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SBA Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SBA Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SBA Communications Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SBA Communications' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SBA Communications' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SBA Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SBA Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SBA Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SBA Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SBA Communications Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SBA Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of SBA Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SBA Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sba stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
SBA Communications Investors Sentiment
The influence of SBA Communications' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in SBA. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to SBA Communications' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in SBA. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding SBA can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around SBA Communications Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
SBA Communications' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for SBA Communications' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average SBA Communications' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on SBA Communications.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards SBA Communications in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, SBA Communications' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from SBA Communications options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SBA Communications to cross-verify your projections. Note that the SBA Communications Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other SBA Communications' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for SBA Stock analysis
When running SBA Communications' price analysis, check to measure SBA Communications' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SBA Communications is operating at the current time. Most of SBA Communications' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SBA Communications' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SBA Communications' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SBA Communications to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is SBA Communications' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SBA Communications. If investors know SBA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SBA Communications listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.527 | Dividend Share 3.53 | Earnings Share 5.1 | Revenue Per Share 24.898 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of SBA Communications Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SBA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SBA Communications' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SBA Communications' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SBA Communications' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SBA Communications' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SBA Communications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SBA Communications is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SBA Communications' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.