American Fds Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SCWCX Fund | USD 52.96 0.55 1.05% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Fds Smallcap on the next trading day is expected to be 52.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.18. American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Fds stock prices and determine the direction of American Fds Smallcap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Fds' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Fds to cross-verify your projections. American |
Most investors in American Fds cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Fds' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Fds' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
American Fds simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for American Fds Smallcap are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as American Fds Smallcap prices get older. American Fds Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Fds Smallcap on the next trading day is expected to be 52.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Fds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Fds Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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American Fds Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Fds' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Fds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.13 and 53.79, respectively. We have considered American Fds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Fds mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Fds mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.487 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0052 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3636 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0067 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.18 |
Predictive Modules for American Fds
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Fds Smallcap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Fds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for American Fds
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Fds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Fds' price trends.American Fds Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Fds mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Fds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Fds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Fds Smallcap Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Fds' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Fds' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Fds Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Fds mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Fds shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Fds mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify American Fds Smallcap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 52.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 52.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.28 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.55 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 28.95 |
American Fds Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Fds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Fds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6861 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8547 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8404 | |||
| Variance | 0.7063 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7929 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7306 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Fds to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Fds Smallcap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Fds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.