Wells Fargo Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| WFCO34 Stock | BRL 78.19 1.56 2.04% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Wells Fargo on the next trading day is expected to be 78.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.63. Wells Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Wells Fargo stock prices and determine the direction of Wells Fargo's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Wells Fargo's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Wells Fargo to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Wells Stock refer to our How to Trade Wells Stock guide.Wells |
Most investors in Wells Fargo cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Wells Fargo's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Wells Fargo's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Wells Fargo is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Wells Fargo value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Wells Fargo Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Wells Fargo on the next trading day is expected to be 78.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error of 1.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Wells Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Wells Fargo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Wells Fargo Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Wells Fargo | Wells Fargo Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Wells Fargo Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Wells Fargo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Wells Fargo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 76.85 and 79.43, respectively. We have considered Wells Fargo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Wells Fargo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Wells Fargo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3011 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8464 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0112 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.63 |
Predictive Modules for Wells Fargo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Wells Fargo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Wells Fargo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Wells Fargo
For every potential investor in Wells, whether a beginner or expert, Wells Fargo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Wells Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Wells. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Wells Fargo's price trends.Wells Fargo Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Wells Fargo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Wells Fargo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Wells Fargo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Wells Fargo Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Wells Fargo's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Wells Fargo's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Wells Fargo Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Wells Fargo stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Wells Fargo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Wells Fargo stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Wells Fargo entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Wells Fargo Risk Indicators
The analysis of Wells Fargo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Wells Fargo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting wells stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8607 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7409 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Wells Fargo offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Wells Fargo's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Wells Fargo Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Wells Fargo Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Wells Fargo to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Wells Stock refer to our How to Trade Wells Stock guide.Note that the Wells Fargo information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Wells Fargo's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Wells Stock analysis
When running Wells Fargo's price analysis, check to measure Wells Fargo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Wells Fargo is operating at the current time. Most of Wells Fargo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Wells Fargo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Wells Fargo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Wells Fargo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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