Aperam SA (Spain) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 26.18
| APAM Stock | EUR 26.18 0.40 1.50% |
Aperam |
Aperam SA Target Price Odds to finish over 26.18
The tendency of Aperam Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 26.18 | 90 days | 26.18 | about 87.57 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aperam SA to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 87.57 (This Aperam SA probability density function shows the probability of Aperam Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aperam SA has a beta of -0.48. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aperam SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aperam SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Aperam SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Aperam SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aperam SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aperam SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aperam SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aperam SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aperam SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aperam SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aperam SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aperam SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Aperam SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aperam SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aperam SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aperam SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Aperam SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aperam Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aperam SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aperam SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.9 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 258 M |
Aperam SA Technical Analysis
Aperam SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aperam Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aperam SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aperam Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aperam SA Predictive Forecast Models
Aperam SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aperam SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aperam SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aperam SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aperam SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aperam SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aperam SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Aperam SA Backtesting, Aperam SA Valuation, Aperam SA Correlation, Aperam SA Hype Analysis, Aperam SA Volatility, Aperam SA History as well as Aperam SA Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Complementary Tools for Aperam Stock analysis
When running Aperam SA's price analysis, check to measure Aperam SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aperam SA is operating at the current time. Most of Aperam SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aperam SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aperam SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aperam SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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