China Green Agriculture Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.08
| CGA Stock | USD 3.08 0.09 3.01% |
Closest to current price China long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
China |
China Green Target Price Odds to finish over 3.08
The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 3.08 | 90 days | 3.08 | about 14.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Green to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 14.01 (This China Green Agriculture probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon China Green has a beta of 0.73 suggesting as returns on the market go up, China Green average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Green Agriculture will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Green Agriculture has an alpha of 0.5954, implying that it can generate a 0.6 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). China Green Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Green
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Green Agriculture. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Green's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Green Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Green is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Green's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Green Agriculture, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Green within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.60 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.73 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
China Green Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Green for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Green Agriculture can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| China Green is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| China Green appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 124.14 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (13.28 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 21.92 M. | |
| China Green Agriculture has about 71.14 M in cash with (990.12 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.24, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| China Green has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Tao Li of 3156808 shares of China Green subject to Rule 16b-3 |
China Green Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Green's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Green's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 71.1 M |
China Green Technical Analysis
China Green's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Green Agriculture. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Green Predictive Forecast Models
China Green's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Green's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Green's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about China Green Agriculture
Checking the ongoing alerts about China Green for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Green Agriculture help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| China Green is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| China Green appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 124.14 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (13.28 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 21.92 M. | |
| China Green Agriculture has about 71.14 M in cash with (990.12 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.24, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| China Green has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Tao Li of 3156808 shares of China Green subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out China Green Backtesting, China Green Valuation, China Green Correlation, China Green Hype Analysis, China Green Volatility, China Green History as well as China Green Performance. Note that the China Green Agriculture information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Green's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Complementary Tools for China Stock analysis
When running China Green's price analysis, check to measure China Green's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Green is operating at the current time. Most of China Green's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Green's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Green's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Green to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is China Green's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of China Green. If investors know China will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about China Green listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.22) | Revenue Per Share 8.386 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.28) | Return On Assets (0.05) | Return On Equity (0.12) |
The market value of China Green Agriculture is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of China that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of China Green's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is China Green's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because China Green's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect China Green's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between China Green's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if China Green is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Green's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.