Duluth Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.80
| DLTH Stock | USD 3.80 0.04 1.06% |
Closest to current price Duluth long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Duluth |
Duluth Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 3.80
The tendency of Duluth Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 3.80 | 90 days | 3.80 | roughly 96.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Duluth Holdings to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This Duluth Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Duluth Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.34 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Duluth Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally Duluth Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Duluth Holdings Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Duluth Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duluth Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Duluth Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Duluth Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Duluth Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Duluth Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Duluth Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Duluth Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Duluth Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Duluth Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Duluth Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Duluth Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 646.68 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.36 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 343.44 M. | |
| Duluth Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Duluth Holdings Inc Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript Highlights Navigating Challenges ... |
Duluth Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Duluth Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Duluth Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Duluth Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.2 M |
Duluth Holdings Technical Analysis
Duluth Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Duluth Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Duluth Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Duluth Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Duluth Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Duluth Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Duluth Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Duluth Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Duluth Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Duluth Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Duluth Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Duluth Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 646.68 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.36 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 343.44 M. | |
| Duluth Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Duluth Holdings Inc Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript Highlights Navigating Challenges ... |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Duluth Stock
When determining whether Duluth Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Duluth Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Duluth Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Duluth Holdings Stock:Check out Duluth Holdings Backtesting, Duluth Holdings Valuation, Duluth Holdings Correlation, Duluth Holdings Hype Analysis, Duluth Holdings Volatility, Duluth Holdings History as well as Duluth Holdings Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Duluth Stock please use our How to Invest in Duluth Holdings guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Duluth Holdings. If investors know Duluth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Duluth Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Earnings Share (0.40) | Revenue Per Share 19.376 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of Duluth Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Duluth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Duluth Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Duluth Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Duluth Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Duluth Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Duluth Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Duluth Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Duluth Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.