Lgi Homes Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 96.04
| LGIH Stock | USD 96.04 0.19 0.20% |
Closest to current price LGI long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
LGI |
LGI Homes Target Price Odds to finish over 96.04
The tendency of LGI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 96.04 | 90 days | 96.04 | about 92.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LGI Homes to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 92.81 (This LGI Homes probability density function shows the probability of LGI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days LGI Homes has a beta of -0.58. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding LGI Homes are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, LGI Homes is likely to outperform the market. Additionally LGI Homes has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. LGI Homes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for LGI Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LGI Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LGI Homes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LGI Homes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LGI Homes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LGI Homes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LGI Homes, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LGI Homes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.58 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.73 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
LGI Homes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LGI Homes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LGI Homes can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| LGI Homes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| LGI Homes currently holds about 41.97 M in cash with (56.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.8. | |
| LGI Homes has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Earnings Preview LGI Homes Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline |
LGI Homes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LGI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LGI Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LGI Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49 M |
LGI Homes Technical Analysis
LGI Homes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LGI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LGI Homes. In general, you should focus on analyzing LGI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
LGI Homes Predictive Forecast Models
LGI Homes' time-series forecasting models is one of many LGI Homes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LGI Homes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about LGI Homes
Checking the ongoing alerts about LGI Homes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LGI Homes help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| LGI Homes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| LGI Homes currently holds about 41.97 M in cash with (56.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.8. | |
| LGI Homes has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Earnings Preview LGI Homes Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline |
Check out LGI Homes Backtesting, LGI Homes Valuation, LGI Homes Correlation, LGI Homes Hype Analysis, LGI Homes Volatility, LGI Homes History as well as LGI Homes Performance. For more detail on how to invest in LGI Stock please use our How to Invest in LGI Homes guide.You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for LGI Stock analysis
When running LGI Homes' price analysis, check to measure LGI Homes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LGI Homes is operating at the current time. Most of LGI Homes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LGI Homes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LGI Homes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LGI Homes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is LGI Homes' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LGI Homes. If investors know LGI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LGI Homes listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.515 | Earnings Share 8.42 | Revenue Per Share 100.335 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.246 | Return On Assets 0.0459 |
The market value of LGI Homes is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LGI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LGI Homes' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LGI Homes' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LGI Homes' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LGI Homes' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LGI Homes' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LGI Homes is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LGI Homes' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.