Amerisafe Stock Market Value
| AMSF Stock | USD 42.95 0.12 0.28% |
| Symbol | AMERISAFE |
AMERISAFE Price To Book Ratio
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMERISAFE. If investors know AMERISAFE will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AMERISAFE listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | Dividend Share 1.39 | Earnings Share 3.21 | Revenue Per Share 16.136 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.026 |
The market value of AMERISAFE is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMERISAFE that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AMERISAFE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AMERISAFE's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AMERISAFE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AMERISAFE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AMERISAFE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AMERISAFE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AMERISAFE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
AMERISAFE 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AMERISAFE's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AMERISAFE.
| 03/13/2024 |
| 06/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AMERISAFE on March 13, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AMERISAFE or generate 0.0% return on investment in AMERISAFE over 90 days. AMERISAFE is related to or competes with Assured Guaranty, MBIA, Enact Holdings, ICC Holdings, James River, Essent, and Investors Title. AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers compensation insurance in the United States More
AMERISAFE Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AMERISAFE's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AMERISAFE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.19) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.81 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.70) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.59 |
AMERISAFE Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AMERISAFE's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AMERISAFE's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AMERISAFE historical prices to predict the future AMERISAFE's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.11) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.30) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.30) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.43) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMERISAFE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMERISAFE Backtested Returns
AMERISAFE secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.18, which signifies that the company had a -0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. AMERISAFE exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm AMERISAFE's Standard Deviation of 1.57, mean deviation of 0.9019, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.11) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.21, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, AMERISAFE's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding AMERISAFE is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, AMERISAFE has a negative expected return of -0.29%. Please make sure to confirm AMERISAFE's treynor ratio, and the relationship between the variance and daily balance of power , to decide if AMERISAFE performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | 0.24 |
Weak predictability
AMERISAFE has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AMERISAFE time series from 13th of March 2024 to 27th of April 2024 and 27th of April 2024 to 11th of June 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AMERISAFE price movement. The serial correlation of 0.24 indicates that over 24.0% of current AMERISAFE price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.24 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.34 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.49 |
AMERISAFE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AMERISAFE stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AMERISAFE's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AMERISAFE returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AMERISAFE has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AMERISAFE regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AMERISAFE stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AMERISAFE stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AMERISAFE stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AMERISAFE Lagged Returns
When evaluating AMERISAFE's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AMERISAFE stock have on its future price. AMERISAFE autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AMERISAFE autocorrelation shows the relationship between AMERISAFE stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AMERISAFE.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in AMERISAFE Stock
When determining whether AMERISAFE is a strong investment it is important to analyze AMERISAFE's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AMERISAFE's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AMERISAFE Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out AMERISAFE Correlation, AMERISAFE Volatility and AMERISAFE Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on AMERISAFE. For more detail on how to invest in AMERISAFE Stock please use our How to Invest in AMERISAFE guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
AMERISAFE technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.