Upm Kymmene Oyj Stock Market Value
| UPMMY Stock | USD 38.28 0.35 0.92% |
| Symbol | UPM-Kymmene |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to UPM-Kymmene Oyj's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of UPM-Kymmene Oyj.
| 03/03/2024 |
| 06/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in UPM-Kymmene Oyj on March 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding UPM Kymmene Oyj or generate 0.0% return on investment in UPM-Kymmene Oyj over 90 days. UPM-Kymmene Oyj is related to or competes with Mercer International, Glatfelter, Sylvamo Corp, Suzano Papel, and Clearwater Paper. It operates through UPM Biorefining, UPM Energy, UPM Raflatac, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywo... More
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure UPM-Kymmene Oyj's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess UPM Kymmene Oyj upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.142 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.76 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.13) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.52 |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for UPM-Kymmene Oyj's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as UPM-Kymmene Oyj's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use UPM-Kymmene Oyj historical prices to predict the future UPM-Kymmene Oyj's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1142 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.197 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1569 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1328 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2087 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UPM Kymmene Oyj Backtested Returns
UPM-Kymmene Oyj appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. UPM Kymmene Oyj owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.19, which indicates the firm had a 0.19% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for UPM Kymmene Oyj, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review UPM-Kymmene Oyj's coefficient of variation of 575.36, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1142 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, UPM-Kymmene Oyj holds a performance score of 14. The entity has a beta of 1.14, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. UPM-Kymmene Oyj returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, UPM-Kymmene Oyj is expected to follow. Please check UPM-Kymmene Oyj's potential upside, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and price action indicator , to make a quick decision on whether UPM-Kymmene Oyj's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.66 |
Good predictability
UPM Kymmene Oyj has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between UPM-Kymmene Oyj time series from 3rd of March 2024 to 17th of April 2024 and 17th of April 2024 to 1st of June 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of UPM Kymmene Oyj price movement. The serial correlation of 0.66 indicates that around 66.0% of current UPM-Kymmene Oyj price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.66 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.69 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.74 |
UPM Kymmene Oyj lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting UPM-Kymmene Oyj's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of UPM-Kymmene Oyj returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that UPM-Kymmene Oyj has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Lagged Returns
When evaluating UPM-Kymmene Oyj's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet have on its future price. UPM-Kymmene Oyj autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, UPM-Kymmene Oyj autocorrelation shows the relationship between UPM-Kymmene Oyj pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in UPM Kymmene Oyj.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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When running UPM-Kymmene Oyj's price analysis, check to measure UPM-Kymmene Oyj's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UPM-Kymmene Oyj is operating at the current time. Most of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UPM-Kymmene Oyj's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UPM-Kymmene Oyj to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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UPM-Kymmene Oyj technical pink sheet analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, pink sheet market cycles, or different charting patterns.