Beacon Roofing Supply Stock Price Prediction
| BECN Stock | USD 97.03 0.33 0.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
52
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.65) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.77 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.37 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.92 | Wall Street Target Price 114.27 |
Using Beacon Roofing hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Beacon Roofing Supply from the perspective of Beacon Roofing response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Beacon Roofing using Beacon Roofing's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Beacon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Beacon Roofing's stock price.
Beacon Roofing Short Interest
An investor who is long Beacon Roofing may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Beacon Roofing and may potentially protect profits, hedge Beacon Roofing with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 85.4847 | Short Percent 0.0605 | Short Ratio 4.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 1 M | 50 Day MA 96.8604 |
Beacon Roofing Supply Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Beacon Roofing's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Beacon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Beacon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Beacon Roofing Supply. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Beacon Roofing's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Beacon Roofing.
Beacon Roofing Implied Volatility | 33.85 |
Beacon Roofing's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Beacon Roofing Supply stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Beacon Roofing's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Beacon Roofing stock will not fluctuate a lot when Beacon Roofing's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Beacon Roofing to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Beacon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Beacon Roofing after-hype prediction price | USD 97.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Beacon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Beacon Roofing Supply will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.12% per day over the life of the 2024-06-21 option contract. With Beacon Roofing trading at USD 97.03, that is roughly USD 2.05 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Beacon Roofing's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Beacon Roofing Supply options at the current volatility level of 33.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Beacon |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Beacon Roofing's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Beacon Roofing After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Beacon Roofing at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Beacon Roofing or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Beacon Roofing, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Beacon Roofing Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Beacon Roofing's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Beacon Roofing's historical news coverage. Beacon Roofing's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 95.48 and 98.58, respectively. We have considered Beacon Roofing's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Beacon Roofing is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Beacon Roofing Supply is based on 3 months time horizon.
Beacon Roofing Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Beacon Roofing is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Beacon Roofing backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Beacon Roofing, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.55 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
97.03 | 97.03 | 0.00 |
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Beacon Roofing Hype Timeline
Beacon Roofing Supply is currently traded for 97.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Beacon is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 170.33%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Beacon Roofing is about 350.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 97.11. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Beacon Roofing was currently reported as 28.94. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.65. Beacon Roofing Supply recorded a loss per share of 0.59. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 3:2 split on the 13th of June 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Beacon Roofing Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Beacon Roofing Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Beacon Roofing's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Beacon Roofing's future price movements. Getting to know how Beacon Roofing's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Beacon Roofing may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DSGR | Distribution Solutions Group | (0.32) | 8 per month | 2.08 | 0.02 | 3.95 | (3.51) | 8.82 | |
| GIC | Global Industrial Co | (0.26) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.26 | (2.26) | 12.69 | |
| MSM | MSC Industrial Direct | (0.74) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.35 | (2.18) | 4.70 | |
| DXPE | DXP Enterprises | 0.57 | 11 per month | 2.15 | 0.05 | 4.21 | (3.52) | 13.47 | |
| SITE | SiteOne Landscape Supply | 1.60 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.60 | (4.80) | 15.04 | |
| WSO | Watsco Inc | 1.80 | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.14 | 2.41 | (2.46) | 9.06 |
Beacon Roofing Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Beacon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Beacon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Beacon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Beacon Roofing Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Beacon Roofing stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Beacon Roofing Supply, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Beacon Roofing based on analysis of Beacon Roofing hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Beacon Roofing's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Beacon Roofing's related companies. | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.005978 | 0.006775 | 0.003239 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.59 | 0.42 | 0.58 |
Story Coverage note for Beacon Roofing
The number of cover stories for Beacon Roofing depends on current market conditions and Beacon Roofing's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Beacon Roofing is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Beacon Roofing's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Beacon Roofing Short Properties
Beacon Roofing's future price predictability will typically decrease when Beacon Roofing's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Beacon Roofing Supply often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Beacon Roofing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Beacon Roofing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 84 M |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Beacon Stock
When determining whether Beacon Roofing Supply offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Beacon Roofing's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Beacon Roofing Supply Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Beacon Roofing Supply Stock:Check out Beacon Roofing Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Beacon Roofing. If investors know Beacon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Beacon Roofing listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.65) | Earnings Share (0.59) | Revenue Per Share 146.397 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 | Return On Assets 0.0692 |
The market value of Beacon Roofing Supply is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Beacon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Beacon Roofing's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Beacon Roofing's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Beacon Roofing's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Beacon Roofing's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Beacon Roofing's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Beacon Roofing is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Beacon Roofing's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.