First Merchants Stock Price Prediction
| FRME Stock | USD 34.39 0.20 0.58% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
First Merchants stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of First Merchants shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of First Merchants' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of First Merchants and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from First Merchants' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First Merchants, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of First Merchants based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The First stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on First Merchants over a specific investment horizon. Using First Merchants hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Merchants from the perspective of First Merchants response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in First Merchants. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Merchants to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First Merchants after-hype prediction price | USD 34.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
First |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Merchants After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Merchants at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Merchants or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Merchants, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Merchants Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Merchants' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Merchants' historical news coverage. First Merchants' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.56 and 36.22, respectively. We have considered First Merchants' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Merchants is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Merchants is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Merchants Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Merchants is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Merchants backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Merchants, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
34.39 | 34.39 | 0.00 |
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First Merchants Hype Timeline
First Merchants is currently traded for 34.39. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. First is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Merchants is about 4643.28%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.39. About 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.88. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Merchants has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.68. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of February 2024. The firm had 105:100 split on the 27th of August 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out First Merchants Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.First Merchants Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Merchants' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Merchants' future price movements. Getting to know how First Merchants' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Merchants may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
First Merchants Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About First Merchants Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First Merchants stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Merchants, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Merchants based on analysis of First Merchants hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Merchants's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Merchants's related companies. Story Coverage note for First Merchants
The number of cover stories for First Merchants depends on current market conditions and First Merchants' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Merchants is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Merchants' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Merchants Short Properties
First Merchants' future price predictability will typically decrease when First Merchants' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Merchants often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Merchants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Merchants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -112.6 M |
Check out First Merchants Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is First Merchants' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Merchants. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of First Merchants is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.