Jmicron Technology Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| 4925 Stock | TWD 59.30 0.20 0.34% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Jmicron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 58.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.69. Jmicron Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Jmicron |
Most investors in Jmicron Technology cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jmicron Technology's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jmicron Technology's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Jmicron Technology is based on an artificially constructed time series of Jmicron Technology daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Jmicron Technology 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Jmicron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 58.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.69, mean absolute percentage error of 4.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jmicron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jmicron Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Jmicron Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
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Jmicron Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Jmicron Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jmicron Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.43 and 60.89, respectively. We have considered Jmicron Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jmicron Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jmicron Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 104.8523 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.9974 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6922 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.6875 |
Predictive Modules for Jmicron Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jmicron Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jmicron Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Jmicron Technology
For every potential investor in Jmicron, whether a beginner or expert, Jmicron Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jmicron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jmicron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jmicron Technology's price trends.Jmicron Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jmicron Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jmicron Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jmicron Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Jmicron Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jmicron Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jmicron Technology's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Jmicron Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jmicron Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jmicron Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jmicron Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jmicron Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Jmicron Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Jmicron Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jmicron Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jmicron stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Variance | 4.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When running Jmicron Technology's price analysis, check to measure Jmicron Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jmicron Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Jmicron Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jmicron Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jmicron Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jmicron Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.