Adaptimmune Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ADAP Stock | USD 1.04 0.02 1.96% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Adaptimmune Therapeutics Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.58. Adaptimmune Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Adaptimmune Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Adaptimmune Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Adaptimmune Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Adaptimmune |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Adaptimmune Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Adaptimmune Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Adaptimmune Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Adaptimmune Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Adaptimmune Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Adaptimmune Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Adaptimmune Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Adaptimmune. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Adaptimmune Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Adaptimmune Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Adaptimmune Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Adaptimmune Therapeutics - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Adaptimmune Therapeutics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Adaptimmune Therapeutics price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Adaptimmune Therapeutics. Adaptimmune Therapeutics Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Adaptimmune Therapeutics Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adaptimmune Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adaptimmune Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adaptimmune Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adaptimmune Therapeutics | Adaptimmune Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Adaptimmune Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adaptimmune Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adaptimmune Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.83, respectively. We have considered Adaptimmune Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adaptimmune Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adaptimmune Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0437 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0373 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.58 |
Predictive Modules for Adaptimmune Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adaptimmune Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adaptimmune Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Adaptimmune Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Adaptimmune, whether a beginner or expert, Adaptimmune Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adaptimmune Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adaptimmune. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adaptimmune Therapeutics' price trends.View Adaptimmune Therapeutics Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adaptimmune Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Adaptimmune Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Adaptimmune Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adaptimmune Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adaptimmune Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adaptimmune Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adaptimmune Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adaptimmune Therapeutics Plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Adaptimmune Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adaptimmune Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adaptimmune Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adaptimmune stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.05 | |||
| Variance | 25.5 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectAdditional Tools for Adaptimmune Stock Analysis
When running Adaptimmune Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Adaptimmune Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Adaptimmune Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Adaptimmune Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Adaptimmune Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Adaptimmune Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Adaptimmune Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.