First Merchants Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FRME Stock | USD 31.60 0.35 1.10% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Merchants on the next trading day is expected to be 31.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.89. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Merchants stock prices and determine the direction of First Merchants's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Merchants' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although First Merchants' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Merchants' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Merchants fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Merchants to cross-verify your projections. First |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Merchants' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Merchants' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Merchants stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Merchants' open interest, investors have to compare it to First Merchants' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Merchants is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in First Merchants cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Merchants' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Merchants' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
First Merchants simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for First Merchants are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as First Merchants prices get older. First Merchants Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Merchants on the next trading day is expected to be 31.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Merchants Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Merchants | First Merchants Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Merchants Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Merchants' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Merchants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.95 and 33.25, respectively. We have considered First Merchants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Merchants stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Merchants stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1358 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0342 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4482 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0133 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.89 |
Predictive Modules for First Merchants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Merchants. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Merchants' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for First Merchants
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Merchants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Merchants' price trends.First Merchants Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Merchants stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Merchants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Merchants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Merchants Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Merchants' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Merchants' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Merchants Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Merchants stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Merchants shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Merchants stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Merchants entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4021.12 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.64) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 31.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 31.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.18) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.35) |
First Merchants Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Merchants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Merchants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.65 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in First Stock
When determining whether First Merchants is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if First Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about First Merchants Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about First Merchants Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Merchants to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Merchants. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | Dividend Share 1.36 | Earnings Share 3.46 | Revenue Per Share 10.631 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
The market value of First Merchants is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.