Ardagh Metal Packaging Stock Price Prediction
| AMBP Stock | USD 3.87 0.07 1.78% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
66
Oversold | Overbought |
Ardagh Metal Packaging stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ardagh Metal shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ardagh Metal's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ardagh Metal and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ardagh Metal's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ardagh Metal Packaging, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ardagh Metal's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.04 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.15 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.24 | Wall Street Target Price 3.97 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ardagh Metal based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ardagh stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ardagh Metal over a specific investment horizon. Using Ardagh Metal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ardagh Metal Packaging from the perspective of Ardagh Metal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ardagh Metal using Ardagh Metal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ardagh using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ardagh Metal's stock price.
Ardagh Metal Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Ardagh Metal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ardagh Metal Packaging stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ardagh Metal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ardagh Metal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ardagh Metal's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ardagh Metal. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ardagh Metal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ardagh because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ardagh Metal after-hype prediction price | USD 3.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ardagh |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ardagh Metal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ardagh Metal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ardagh Metal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ardagh Metal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ardagh Metal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ardagh Metal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ardagh Metal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ardagh Metal's historical news coverage. Ardagh Metal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.92 and 5.90, respectively. We have considered Ardagh Metal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ardagh Metal is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ardagh Metal Packaging is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ardagh Metal Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ardagh Metal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ardagh Metal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ardagh Metal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.99 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.87 | 3.91 | 1.03 |
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Ardagh Metal Hype Timeline
Ardagh Metal Packaging is presently traded for 3.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ardagh is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.91 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 1.03%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Ardagh Metal is about 4840.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.86. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.81 B. Net Loss for the year was (50 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 593 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Ardagh Metal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ardagh Metal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ardagh Metal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ardagh Metal's future price movements. Getting to know how Ardagh Metal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ardagh Metal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GEF | Greif Bros | (0.42) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.01 | 1.75 | (1.86) | 8.43 | |
| REYN | Reynolds Consumer Products | (0.38) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.35 | (1.72) | 4.55 | |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings | 0.85 | 10 per month | 1.15 | 0.03 | 2.18 | (1.44) | 7.31 | |
| OI | O I Glass | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.72 | (4.47) | 20.11 | |
| MYE | Myers Industries | (0.30) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.30 | (3.41) | 27.48 | |
| SEE | Sealed Air | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.96 | 0 | 2.31 | (2.93) | 10.90 | |
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Holding | 0.17 | 10 per month | 1.78 | 0.03 | 2.14 | (2.24) | 9.93 | |
| BALL | Ball Corporation | (0.62) | 11 per month | 0.81 | 0.11 | 1.75 | (1.37) | 8.87 | |
| SON | Sonoco Products | 0.33 | 11 per month | 0.90 | 0.06 | 1.76 | (1.57) | 3.92 |
Ardagh Metal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ardagh price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ardagh using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ardagh charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ardagh Metal Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ardagh Metal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ardagh Metal Packaging, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ardagh Metal based on analysis of Ardagh Metal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ardagh Metal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ardagh Metal's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.11 | 0.08 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.48 | 0.95 |
Story Coverage note for Ardagh Metal
The number of cover stories for Ardagh Metal depends on current market conditions and Ardagh Metal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ardagh Metal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ardagh Metal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ardagh Metal Short Properties
Ardagh Metal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ardagh Metal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ardagh Metal Packaging often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ardagh Metal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ardagh Metal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 597.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 443 M |
Check out Ardagh Metal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Ardagh Metal Packaging information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ardagh Metal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Complementary Tools for Ardagh Stock analysis
When running Ardagh Metal's price analysis, check to measure Ardagh Metal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardagh Metal is operating at the current time. Most of Ardagh Metal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardagh Metal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardagh Metal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardagh Metal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ardagh Metal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ardagh Metal. If investors know Ardagh will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ardagh Metal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share (0.14) | Revenue Per Share 8.069 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 |
The market value of Ardagh Metal Packaging is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ardagh that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ardagh Metal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ardagh Metal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ardagh Metal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ardagh Metal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ardagh Metal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ardagh Metal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ardagh Metal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.