Northern Oil Gas Stock Price Prediction

NOG Stock  USD 37.81  1.05  2.86%   
As of 24th of June 2024, the value of relative strength index of Northern Oil's share price is approaching 40. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Northern Oil, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

40

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Northern Oil's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Northern Oil and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Northern Oil's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Northern Oil Gas, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Northern Oil's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.97)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.39
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.47
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.54
Wall Street Target Price
49.21
Using Northern Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northern Oil Gas from the perspective of Northern Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northern Oil using Northern Oil's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northern using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northern Oil's stock price.

Northern Oil Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Northern Oil's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Northern. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Northern Oil stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
38.0669
Short Percent
0.1872
Short Ratio
9.11
Shares Short Prior Month
10.2 M
50 Day MA
40.15

Northern Oil Gas Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Northern Oil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Northern. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Northern can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Northern Oil Gas. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Northern Oil's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Northern Oil.

Northern Oil Implied Volatility

    
  22.96  
Northern Oil's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northern Oil Gas stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northern Oil's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northern Oil stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northern Oil's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Northern Oil to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Northern because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Northern Oil after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 37.8  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northern contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northern Oil Gas will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.43% per day over the life of the 2024-07-19 option contract. With Northern Oil trading at USD 37.81, that is roughly USD 0.54 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northern Oil's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northern Oil Gas options at the current volatility level of 22.96%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Northern Oil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northern Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.0345.0746.67
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
36.0237.6239.22
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.5651.1756.80
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.111.281.48
Details

Northern Oil After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Northern Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northern Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northern Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Northern Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Northern Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northern Oil's historical news coverage. Northern Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.20 and 39.40, respectively. We have considered Northern Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
37.81
37.80
After-hype Price
39.40
Upside
Northern Oil is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northern Oil Gas is based on 3 months time horizon.

Northern Oil Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northern Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northern Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northern Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.60
  0.01 
 0.00  
10 Events / Month
11 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
37.81
37.80
0.03 
183.91  
Notes

Northern Oil Hype Timeline

On the 24th of June Northern Oil Gas is traded for 37.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Northern is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 37.8. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 183.91%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Northern Oil is about 1942.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.81. About 93.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Northern Oil was now reported as 19.91. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.32. Northern Oil Gas recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.16. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of June 2024. The firm had 1:10 split on the 21st of September 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Northern Oil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Northern Oil Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Northern Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northern Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Northern Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northern Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ESTEEarthstone Energy 0.00 0 per month 2.66  0.06  4.37 (4.80) 10.76 
VTLEVital Energy(2.16)9 per month 0.00 (0.13) 2.79 (4.13) 9.95 
CRKComstock Resources 0.55 9 per month 1.65  0.22  3.78 (3.08) 8.95 
MGYMagnolia Oil Gas(0.21)11 per month 1.82  0.02  2.01 (2.58) 7.10 
OBEObsidian Energy 0.01 9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 3.35 (4.08) 10.59 
MTDRMatador Resources(2.34)11 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.10 (3.58) 9.08 
MURMurphy Oil(0.40)10 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.15 (1.67) 8.02 
CIVICivitas Resources 0.08 10 per month 0.00 (0.07) 1.92 (2.64) 12.36 
SBOWSilverBow Resources 1.07 9 per month 2.28  0.04  3.59 (3.99) 15.14 
CHRDChord Energy Corp 2.11 7 per month 0.00 (0.02) 1.84 (2.11) 7.55 
PDCEPDC Energy(0.62)4 per month 1.64  0.11  2.84 (2.49) 9.74 
CPECallon Petroleum 0.00 0 per month 3.03  0.01  4.32 (5.23) 12.38 
PRPermian Resources 0.1 7 per month 0.00 (0.06) 1.79 (2.90) 8.26 
ARAntero Resources Corp 0.45 8 per month 1.67  0.17  3.69 (3.11) 10.19 
EPSNEpsilon Energy 0.04 9 per month 1.10  0.09  2.87 (1.82) 6.65 
EGYVaalco Energy 0.01 9 per month 2.33  0.04  4.11 (3.94) 17.14 
PHXPHX Minerals(0.09)10 per month 1.60  0.04  3.35 (2.36) 10.82 

Northern Oil Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Northern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Northern Oil Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Northern Oil stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Northern Oil Gas, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Northern Oil based on analysis of Northern Oil hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Northern Oil's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Northern Oil's related companies.
 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.03030.03650.0249
Price To Sales Ratio1.221.781.69

Story Coverage note for Northern Oil

The number of cover stories for Northern Oil depends on current market conditions and Northern Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northern Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northern Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Northern Oil Short Properties

Northern Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Northern Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northern Oil Gas often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northern Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding92.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments8.2 M

Complementary Tools for Northern Stock analysis

When running Northern Oil's price analysis, check to measure Northern Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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