Adtran Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.51
| ADTN Stock | USD 5.22 0.11 2.06% |
Closest to current price ADTRAN long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
ADTRAN |
ADTRAN Target Price Odds to finish over 5.51
The tendency of ADTRAN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 5.51 or more in 90 days |
| 5.22 | 90 days | 5.51 | about 36.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ADTRAN to move over $ 5.51 or more in 90 days from now is about 36.0 (This ADTRAN Inc probability density function shows the probability of ADTRAN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ADTRAN Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 5.22 and $ 5.51 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.48 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days ADTRAN has a beta of 0.21. This suggests as returns on the market go up, ADTRAN average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ADTRAN Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ADTRAN Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. ADTRAN Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ADTRAN
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ADTRAN Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ADTRAN's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ADTRAN Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ADTRAN is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ADTRAN's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ADTRAN Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ADTRAN within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
ADTRAN Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ADTRAN for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ADTRAN Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ADTRAN Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ADTRAN Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.15 B. Net Loss for the year was (267.69 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 327.26 M. | |
| ADTRAN Inc currently holds about 111.9 M in cash with (45.6 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.53. | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 124641 shares by Ulrich Dopfer of ADTRAN at 19.08 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
ADTRAN Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ADTRAN Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ADTRAN's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ADTRAN's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 78.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 87.2 M |
ADTRAN Technical Analysis
ADTRAN's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ADTRAN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ADTRAN Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing ADTRAN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ADTRAN Predictive Forecast Models
ADTRAN's time-series forecasting models is one of many ADTRAN's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ADTRAN's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ADTRAN Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about ADTRAN for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ADTRAN Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ADTRAN Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ADTRAN Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.15 B. Net Loss for the year was (267.69 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 327.26 M. | |
| ADTRAN Inc currently holds about 111.9 M in cash with (45.6 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.53. | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 124641 shares by Ulrich Dopfer of ADTRAN at 19.08 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out ADTRAN Backtesting, ADTRAN Valuation, ADTRAN Correlation, ADTRAN Hype Analysis, ADTRAN Volatility, ADTRAN History as well as ADTRAN Performance. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Complementary Tools for ADTRAN Stock analysis
When running ADTRAN's price analysis, check to measure ADTRAN's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADTRAN is operating at the current time. Most of ADTRAN's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADTRAN's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADTRAN's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADTRAN to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ADTRAN's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADTRAN. If investors know ADTRAN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ADTRAN listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | Dividend Share 0.09 | Earnings Share (7.02) | Revenue Per Share 13.388 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.30) |
The market value of ADTRAN Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADTRAN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADTRAN's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADTRAN's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ADTRAN's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADTRAN's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ADTRAN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ADTRAN is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ADTRAN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.